None of the data sources used explicitly identifies the evolution of small hydro systems for electricity generation therefore, an assumption was adopted that, in the future, the current share of 12 percent of all hydroelectricity would continue to come from small systems. Scenario 2: This scenario is derived from the yearly adoption scenarios of the same external sources as used in the Scenario 1, though following high growth trajectories.Scenario 1: Due to the uncertainty associated with the development of these technologies, Scenario 1 follows IEA (2017) Energy Technology Perspectives 2DS and B2DS scenarios IEA (2018) World Energy Outlook SDS IRENA (2018b) REmap Case scenario and Equinor (2018) Renewal Scenario, using a medium growth trajectory.These were assessed in comparison with a Reference Scenario, in which the solution’s market share was fixed at the current levels. Impacts of increased adoption of small hydropower systems from 2020 to 2050 were generated based on two growth scenarios. The total addressable market for small hydropower is based on projected global electricity generation from 2020 to 2050, with current adoption estimated at 2.6 percent of generation (i.e., 676 terawatt-hours). Two total addressable markets were developed for this sector solutions, supported on lower and higher climate emissions mitigation targets linked to different levels of electricity demand and renewable energy sources integration.

Due to data availability, this analysis focuses almost exclusively on the former. Another type, in-stream hydro, is modeled after tidal energy, in which underwater turbines are anchored to the riverbed and spin from the flowing river current. Small hydropower, sometimes referred to as run-of-river or simply small hydro, is similar to large reservoir-based hydroelectricity but does not divert and store large amounts of water. This solution replaces conventional electricity-generating technologies such as coal, oil, and natural gas power plants. Project Drawdown defines small hydropower as small-scale hydropower technologies under 10 megawatts, including in-stream hydrokinetic systems.

Drawdown meaning hydropowe